Posted on
10th March 2010 by
Nicola Smith
Today we’ve published our 16th and final Recession Report. From next month we will be moving to a shorter monthly Labour Market Report and a bi-monthly Economic Report. The latest labour market figures cover the
period October to December 2009, and show that 2,457,000 people were unemployed by the ILO measure − down 1,000 (effectively unchanged) compared with last month’s release, which covered September – November. Youth unemployment fell a little, with 725,000 18 – 24 year olds unemployed – 3,000 fewer than last month. Overall, these are quite good results – especially the fall in youth unemployment – but it is far too early to say we no longer need to worry about employment. Read more »
Filed under: Equality, Labour market, Recession, Recession Report | 3 Comments »
Posted on
28th January 2010 by
Nicola Smith
Today we have published our 15th Recession Report. This will be our penultimate edition – in recognition of the recovery we will be moving to monthly Labour Market Reports and bi-monthly Economic Reports from March.
While a recovery in the labour market is a long way off, there are some positive signs. The claimant count has fallen for two consecutive months and vacancy levels have now been on the increase since the August to October rolling quarter. And where new jobs are being created, this is happening in both the public and private sectors. Between June-September private sector employment grew for the first time since the first quarter of 2008, with a quarterly increase of 29,000.
But while the headline labour market indicators are more positive than had been expected, there are still causes for concern. Full-time employment is still falling, and long-term unemployment keeps going up – 631,000 people currently have now been out of work for over 12 months. Read more »
Filed under: Labour market, Recession Report | 3 Comments »
Posted on
7th January 2010 by
Nicola Smith
Today we have published our 14th Recession Report, which looks at the labour market data for the period August to October 2009 (with November data for some indicators). As was widely reported in December, the release showed that claimant unemployment had fallen by 6,300 between October and November – a result of a reducation in in-flows (new claimants) and an increase in off-flows (people leaving JSA). Inactivity data were also better than we could have expected they would be at this point in the downturn. Although levels of economic inactivity increased over the year, this was as a result of a rise in students – the number of people economically inactive for other reasons actually saw an annual reduction. And while ILO unemployment is still rising, the speed at which is increasing is continuing to slow.
But although this is good news a full labour market recovery is a long way off. Indicators of ongoing fragility include large proportional increases in the numbers of workers who are inactive becuase they can’t find work and have given up looking, sharp reductions in the number of full-time jobs and fast rising levels of long-term unemployment. The number of people out of work for over 12 months is now a matter for major policy concern – and the findings from the second section of our report, which focuses on the health impacts of unemployment, show why. Read more »
Filed under: Labour market, Recession, Recession Report | 9 Comments »
Posted on
26th November 2009 by
Nicola Smith
Today we publish our 13th recession report, which considers the latest ONS labour market release. There is definitely some good news, with the overall figures showing either a pause in recent employment falls or the possible start of a recovery in employment levels.
However, there are several factors which show just how fragile the labour market still is. In particular, between the June – August and July – September quarters there was an increase of 34,000 in employment for those over-25, but a fall of 42,000 for young people aged 16-24. Young people’s employment levels are showing no evidence of improvement. In addition, although unemployment of less than six months stopped rising in the Spring, long-term unemployment is still increasing and the increase does not yet show any signs of easing off. Read more »
Filed under: Labour market, Recession, Recession Report | 9 Comments »
Posted on
3rd November 2009 by
Nicola Smith
Today we have published our 12th recession report, which considers the labour market figures for June-August 2009. The second part of the report looks at child poverty and the recession, considering what the implications of the recession could be for poverty and inequality.
The labour market data suggest that while unemployment is likely to continue to rise into 2010, the rate at which levels are increasing may be starting to slow. In addition, despite the largest falls in GDP on record, unemployment and employment have not been as badly affected as in previous downturns.
Read more »
Filed under: Child poverty, Labour market, Recession, Recession Report | 2 Comments »
Posted on
25th September 2009 by
Richard Exell
We publish this month’s Recession Report today, and the special feature is a look at what has happened to the relative value of benefits for unemployed people over the past 30 years.
Today, Jobseeker’s Allowance for a single person is worth just 10% of average earnings; this is less than in the 1980s and 1990s recessions. Read more »
Filed under: Inequality, Recession Report | 1 Comment »
Posted on
21st August 2009 by
Nicola Smith
Our latest Recession Report concludes that long-term unemployment will continue to rise for a long time. This month, for the first time in this recession, the number unemployed over 6 months passed the 1 million mark, reaching 1,002,000 – it has been below that level since July 1997. There are now 533,000 people who have been unemployed for over 12 months and 232,000 who have been unemployed for over 24 months. These are the highest figures since June 1998 and July 2000 respectively. Read more »
Filed under: Earnings, Recession, Recession Report | 1 Comment »
Posted on
17th July 2009 by
Richard Exell
Today we publish our latest Recession Report, which focuses on how disabled people have fared over the last ten years and the story so far of how the recession has affected them. In the report we look at employment and unemployment rates, and the ‘disability gaps’ – the gaps between the employment and unemployment rates for disabled and non-disabled people.
The evidence shows that disabled people are among the most disadvantaged groups in our society, with a massive employment rate gap of 27.1 points in 2007. Incredibly, the picture was even worse in the mid-1990s, and the relative position of disabled people has been gradually improving over most of the lifetime of the current government.
Research into what happened over the last 30 years seems to show that the recessions of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s seriously harmed the relative position of disabled people. So, the £64,000 question is: has the same thing happened again in this recession? Read more »
Filed under: Equality, Recession Report | 1 Comment »
Posted on
23rd June 2009 by
Nicola Smith
Today we have published a special edition of our Recession Report. As well as the regular analysis of the most recent unemployment data, we have considered how this recession compares to those of the 1980s and 1990s. The news is not great. In contrast to some commentators, who have been surprisingly upbeat about a 7.2% unemployment rate, we believe it is far too early to talk of green shoots in the labour market.
In both previous recessions unemployment continued rising for at least a year after GDP started to increase, suggesting we are still some way off unemployment’s peak. And over the first four quarters of this downturn there was a 30 per cent increase in unemployment – greater than the same period in the 1980s (29%) and the 1990s (22%). Read more »
Filed under: Recession, Recession Report | 2 Comments »
Posted on
19th May 2009 by
Richard Exell
In today’s Recession Report we analyse the most recent labour market statistics and look at how the recession has been affecting young people.
This month we take a closer look at some of the main statistics. We explain, for instance, the difference between how the employment level and employment rate are calculated, and look at how they have changed in the recession so far. Although the employment level is down by about 300,000 and the employment rate by a little over one percentage point, a look back shows that they are still higher than the figures inherited by the Government in 1997. Read more »
Filed under: Economics, Labour market, Recession, Recession Report | 1 Comment »
Posted on
27th April 2009 by
Richard Exell
Today we have published our sixth Recession Report, where we analyse the most recent labour market statistics.
What has been happening? It is not a pretty picture; the number of unemployed people and the proportion of the workforce who are unemployed have both risen, the number in employment and the proportion who are employed have both fallen, the number of job vacancies continues to fall precipitously. Read more »
Filed under: Employers, Employment law, Recession, Recession Report | Comments Off
Posted on
26th March 2009 by
Nicola Smith
Today we have published our fifth Recession Report. It sets out our analysis of the most recent labour market statistics, which show that at the end of January this year 2.03 million people in the UK were unemployed by the ILO definition (0.8 million women and 1.2 million men). In the second part of the report we consider green jobs and the recession, recognising the importance of moving to a low-carbon economy both as a means to meet our climate change targets and to help restart economic growth and create jobs. Read more »
Filed under: Employers, Environment, Recession, Recession Report | Comments Off
